Every so often I see posts about the success or, more usually, failure of upgrading during events, so I thought I would put forward my interpretation of how these events work and ask someone - perhaps Vilya - to confirm or correct me...
Assume that the likelihood of a Heavenstone upgrade at a particular level was 20% success, 40% fail and 40% break, ie 20 successes 40 fails and 40 breaks
If the effect of a 200% event is to double the PROBABILITY of success, then this would make the figures 40% success, 30% fail and 30% break
If the effect of the event is to double the NUMBER of successes, then this would give 40 success, 40 fail and 40 break, ie 33.3% for each outcome.
While the difference isn't great in this example, if you had a 500% event it would make the difference between 100% success and 55% success
So the question is - which (if either) is the correct interpretation of the 200% event? I believe from earlier posts that the event effect is the second one, rather than the first, but it would be good to be sure...
Caugsmire
(retired statistician which may explain the above...)
This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "Caugsmire" (2. June 2018, 15:39)
Ugh...one of these topics again....
First off, the heaven stone upgrade chances are: 50% success 50% fail (fail includes no change, downgrade by 1, break)
So lets say heavenstone chances are: 50% success, 25% no change 15 downgrade, 10% break
During a 200% upgrade event, the chances for upgrade are: 100% success, 25% no change, 15% downgrade, 10% break.
Only the success rate is increased, the failure rate still remains the same.
Thanks for the reply - however your reply highlights the very point I am making ...
The whole meaning of percentages of probability is that they add up to 100% - if something has 100% chance of success then it has 0% chance of aanything else...
Example - toss a normal coin - chance of heads = 50% and chance of tails = 50%; toss a double-headed coin and chance of heads = 100% chance of tails = 0%
You therefore agree with my second interpretation, that the number of successes doubles, not the percentage - incidentally, the success rate does increase in your example, from 50 out of 100 (50%) to 100 out of 150 (66.7%) just not double...
By the way, my understanding is that the chances of heaven stones upgrading failing and breaking vary, depending on the level of the item you are trying to upgrade - see lastchaosinfo for more details...
This post has been edited 2 times, last edit by "Caugsmire" (2. June 2018, 17:16) with the following reason: correcting typos
No,
you cannot think of it as "they should add up to 100%" because that's not how this works. They add up in the base / standard functionality. Event is something that alters the base and boosts it, that's why you will never add it up to 100%, because it is altere4d for the purpose of a event.
and no, what you read on lastchaosinfo.com about equipment having different chances of upgrading is incorrect. they do not vary on equipment level at all.
I am agreeing with you that the chance of success doesn't double - and just pointing out that the use of percentages is incorrect.
It actually is the chan ce of upgrade that increases and not amount of upgrades. you are thinking completely wrong.
Do you agree that in your example,
chance of upgrade (probability) = number of upgrades / number of attempts
Without event = 50 /(50 + 25 + 15 + 10) = 50% so 300 attempts would on average give 150 successes and 150 failures
With event = 100 / (100 + 25 + 15 + 10) = 66.7% so 300 attempts would on average give 200 successes and 100 failures
If so, we agree and can leave it there - our only disagreement is in the use of the word percentage...
Caugsmire xx
PS It was Vilya back in 2016 who implied that success rates decreased at higher levels - "Would you expect same level of success upgrading from +15 as you would from +5"
This post has been edited 2 times, last edit by "Caugsmire" (2. June 2018, 17:14)
heaven stones have a mind of their own , math is useless . I recently made a plus 16 eribus staff , I had a plus 2 staff, I dropped 24 heaven stones in it to make it plus 6 , sadly I was trying to break it and was spamming heaven stones to do it , 9 chaos smelts and 1 extreme stone later and presto , plus 16 ... heaven stones like to mess with you ,it makes them happy . that was a new record for me . most heaven stones used without breaking the item 24 .
I think the point he's trying to make is that "%" is supposed to make things easier to understand.
There are so many "Types" % is used in LC, it's hard to tell what is what.
- % Increased Chance
- % Decreased Chance
- % Chance
- % Effective
and so on...
I understand there's a concept behind the % being used in different ways, and it working the way it should, but it's not clear to the players what is what. So when we see 600% in an upgrade event, we see 1 of 2 things (600% chance, which is ultimately 100% success) or (600% increased chance, which is ultimately 100% success with most items).
And that whole "It actually is the chance of upgrade that increases and not amount of upgrades. you are thinking completely wrong."
... logically, if the "chance of success increases", so should "the number of success".
I think the point he's trying to make is that "%" is supposed to make things easier to understand.
There are so many "Types" % is used in LC, it's hard to tell what is what.
- % Increased Chance
- % Decreased Chance
- % Chance
- % Effective
and so on...
I understand there's a concept behind the % being used in different ways, and it working the way it should, but it's not clear to the players what is what. So when we see 600% in an upgrade event, we see 1 of 2 things (600% chance, which is ultimately 100% success) or (600% increased chance, which is ultimately 100% success with most items).
And that whole "It actually is the chance of upgrade that increases and not amount of upgrades. you are thinking completely wrong."
... logically, if the "chance of success increases", so should "the number of success".